SOCIAL austerity and a return to Victorian family values in response to increasing anti-social behaviour will be predicted later this week by an expert on future trends.

A backlash against yobs and bad manners will be tipped by a leading social forecaster at a lecture examining ten likely trends over the next century.

Frances Cairncross, a writer and economist, says Britain’s liberal, secular society will find itself challenged by increasing drunkenness, obesity, debt and bad manners.

She predicts that the worldwide rise in numbers of worshippers of Islam signifies a shift in social attitudes towards stricter values.

Her lecture, “The Coming Century – 10 Trends to Back”, to be delivered to a public audience at the Royal Society of Edinburgh on Thursday, will also highlight the need for urgent action to tackle Scotland’s aging population and “brain drain”. She warns the whole concept of retirement is under threat as welfare systems struggle to cope with a growing non-working population.

Ms Cairncross, the managing editor of the Economist, said: “One of the biggest problems facing the world this century is the demographic problem posed by people living longer than before. The choices we face are paying more tax or letting old people sink into poverty – which is something we have spent decades trying to eradicate – or restructuring the economy to allow older people to carry on working. Retirement at 65 will be unheard of.

She added: “Scotland is much worse off than the rest of Britain, with declining population and huge emigration among young people. I don’t think people have woken up to the importance of this. It is time for Scotland to start panicking.”

Among the other trends to be predicted in her lecture is that of the return of strict social values. “There will be a return to Victorian family values. Public concern over crime, anti-social behaviour, relationships, parenting and so on will have to be tackled by politicians.

“Inevitably that will lead to hypocrisy, but future generations will need to address the effects of liberal social values. With more people worldwide subscribing to Islam, Europe and its secular values will feel increasingly isolated.”

Tickets for “The Coming Century – 10 Trends to Back”, on Thursday at 5:30pm, are available free from www.royalsoced.org.uk or at 0131 240 5000.