SCOTLAND’S population has defied all predictions by rising over the past year.

Estimates from the Registrar General for Scotland recorded the population at 5,057,400 in June last year, up 2,600 on 2002.

The main reason for the increase was a rise in immigration, together with the fact more Scots are now staying at home to live and work.

However, the underlying trend is still downward, with the fact that deaths outstripped births by 6,500 in 2003 particularly worrying.

Previous predictions have suggested Scotland’s population is set to drop below the landmark five million figure by 2010. In October 2002, the birth rate fell to its lowest level since records began almost 150 years ago.

At the time, John Curtice, a professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, said the figures revealed worrying social shifts which would have to be tackled urgently.

“It raises questions about the degree to which, by 2020 or 2030, we will be able to support the older population,” he added.

Duncan Macniven, the registrar general for Scotland, welcomed the increase but sought to downplay its significance. “I cannot say that this is a change in the trend for Scotland’s population, partly because it is hard to measure the number of people who emigrate from the UK,” he said. “The population increase, though welcome, is also very small.”

A spokeswoman for the Scottish Executive said: “The migration figures are encouraging, though not fully dependable. This is evidence of the attractiveness of Scotland as a place to live and work.”

Jack McConnell, the First Minister, was more upbeat, claiming the figures proved his Fresh Talent Initiative to attract more people from overseas to work in Scotland was the right way forward.

Mr McConnell wants to attract as many as 8,000 people to Scotland every year for the next five years to arrest the country’s drastic population decline, which he has described as the single greatest threat to the country’s future prosperity.

“Scotland is the best small country in the world. We aim to sustain and build on recent interest through our Fresh Talent policies,” he said.

But the Scottish Conservatives urged caution. Murdo Fraser, the Tory enterprise spokesman, said: “The Executive should not be getting too carried away about this figure. It is a small rise and evidence still suggests that Scotland’s population will fall below five million in 2009.”

Freeing up the economy was the “single most effective way” to deliver a higher birthrate and net in-migration, he added.

The number of migrants coming to Scotland exceeded emigrants by 700 last year, compared with a loss of 9,700 the previous year.

However the number of new asylum seekers – around 3,500 – was much the same as in 2002.

About 2,400 fewer people left the country to go to the rest of the UK in 2002-3.